How will climate change affect insects in Norway?

The Assignment

As a first step, VKM will prepare a protocol describing how the knowledge acquisition will be carried out and which criteria will be applied for including different sources in the summary. The protocol will provide a detailed account of how the assignment is intended to be conducted and will be made available for public consultation during the third quarter of 2026.

The final knowledge synthesis will include a thorough review of the various impacts of climate change, including, among other factors, drought periods, wildfires, flooding, and extreme cold, as well as stronger seasonal variation. These drivers will be linked to different parameters used to measure and describe the status of insects. The parameters range from species’ geographical distribution and abundance to genetic diversity and interactions among species and species groups. Both the direct and indirect effects of climate change will be considered in conjunction with other drivers, such as habitat loss resulting from human development activity.

Assessments will be made including expected effects over different time periods: present conditions, the year 2050, and the year 2100. The uncertainties associated with these assessments will also be identified and described.

The VKM project group:

• Matthew Grainger, Member of VKM’s Panel on CITES (Scientific Lead)
• Gaute Velle, Chair of VKM’s Panel on Biodiversity
• Kyrre Kausrud, Member of VKM’s Panel on Biodiversity
• Anders Nielsen, Member of VKM’s Panel on Biodiversity
• Irja Ratikainen, External Expert
• Martin Malmstrøm, VKM Secretariat (Project Manager)

The protocol will be approved by VKM’s Panel on Biodiversity and is planned to be published at the end of September this year. Work on the knowledge summary will begin in October. The final assessment is scheduled for completion on 1 October 2027.